Authors: Xiaodong Gong, Ben Freyens and Robert Breunig

Relationship dissolution affects wellbeing, particularly that of children. We jointly model the duration of relationships and time to birth of children for 10,827 partnered women over twenty years in Australia, focusing on personality, non-cognitive skills and the risk of problem gambling. We apply Simulated Maximum Likelihood to a bi-variate duration model incorporating non-parametric duration dependence, time-varying covariates, unobserved heterogeneity and correlation between outcomes. Less agreeable, less conscientious or more emotionally unstable individuals have relationships which last less long than others. External locus of control, partner mismatch and problem gambling all contribute to shorter relationships.

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