Author: Nicholas Biddle (Head, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University)
This paper explores how Australians view political parties and the role of government in the lead-up to the 2025 Federal Election, drawing on nationally representative survey data collected in October 2024 and January/February 2025 as part of the ANU 2025 Election Monitoring Survey Series.
The analysis reveals a politically disengaged electorate with few signs of deep ideological commitment to major parties or their leaders. Across both survey waves, no party or leader achieved an average favourability score above the midpoint on a 0–10 scale. The Liberal Party was rated marginally more favourably than Labor, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was more popular than Opposition Leader Peter Dutton. Support for the Greens and Nationals was lower and more polarised, with the former facing high rates of strong disapproval and the latter marked by widespread indifference.
While affective polarisation in Australia remains relatively low compared to other democracies, it is not evenly distributed. Older Australians, Coalition supporters, and residents of outer metropolitan or provincial electorates display higher levels of polarisation, while younger Australians, women, and those with higher education are less polarised. Moreover, individuals with very positive or very negative assessments of the economy are significantly more polarised than those with more neutral economic views.
A central contribution of the paper is the link between optimism and pessimism and political sentiment. Australians who are more optimistic about the country’s future and less pessimistic about the past are more favourable toward both major parties and less politically polarised. Optimism is associated not only with increased support for the governing Labor Party but, to a lesser extent, for the Coalition as well — suggesting that general system confidence shapes party evaluations across the spectrum.
The paper also examines attitudes toward taxation and public expenditure. Australians are increasingly reluctant to support new spending, even as very few believe they pay too little tax. Since 2009, support for additional government spending has declined across most policy areas, particularly the environment, arts, and unemployment benefits. While partisan differences in spending priorities persist, the electorate as a whole appears more cautious.
Overall, the findings suggest an electorate that is neither deeply polarised nor highly enthusiastic, but instead uncertain, ambivalent, and shaped by broader moods of optimism and pessimism. These sentiments, rather than clear ideological divides, may play an outsized role in shaping the outcome of the 2025 election.
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