This note is produced by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Economics Department. It provides illustrative estimates of the initial direct impact on output and spending from the widespread measures taken by governments to contain the current coronavirus epidemic shutdowns, based on an analysis of sectoral output and consumption patterns across countries.
The analysis suggests the lockdown will directly affect sectors amounting to up to one third of GDP in the major economies. For each month of containment, there will be a loss of 2 percentage points in annual GDP growth.
The potential initial impact on activity of partial or complete shutdowns on activity in selected countries are shown below.
(Source: OECD 2020)
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