Budget 2023 Distributional Analysis: Research Note

Authors: Ben Phillips, Matthew Gray and Cukkoo Joseph (ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods)

This paper provides a distributional and regional analysis of the tax and welfare measures of the Commonwealth 2023 Budget. In particular, the analysis considers the Budget’s changes to the JobSeeker payment, Parenting Payment and Commonwealth Rent Assistance. The paper also considers other important changes in the near future that impact household income trends including the stage 3 tax cuts and the more generous child care subsidy. The paper finds that the 2023 Budget measures for welfare are very progressive with a more substantial boost to low income earners. However, over the longer term these impacts when added to the stage 3 tax cuts and child care changes become regressive with substantial dollar gains for higher income households.

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